The Treasure Valley cap-rate outlook 2026
Where caps are sitting today in Ada and Canyon counties, which factors are tightening or loosening them, and what our investor network is actually transacting at heading into 2026.
Cap-rate compression in the Treasure Valley ran harder and longer than most investors expected. Between 2022 and early 2024, yields tightened 100 to 150 basis points across Ada County. Canyon County followed, but with a lag. Where we sit in April 2026 is a more workable market for disciplined investors than it has been in three years.
Where we were
Institutional capital chasing long-horizon yield pushed Ada County 2-to-4-unit stabilized caps as tight as 4.8% in mid-2023. 5-to-20-unit B/C class compressed to 4.5% in the same window. Canyon County lagged Ada by roughly 80 to 120 basis points the whole way down. That spread held through the run.
Where we are
The spread between Ada and Canyon has widened slightly as yield-seeking capital rotates across the valley line. Nampa and Caldwell 2-to-4-unit product is now the most activity we see per-dollar-transacted in our pipeline. Small-ticket value-add in Meridian remains competitive on stabilized product.
What is moving the numbers
- Insurance. Premiums are trending higher across the Valley, with the steepest moves on older Canyon County stock where carriers have re-rated for roof and wiring age.
- Operating expense inflation. Property taxes and utilities are the main line items. Turnover costs remain stubbornly high on B/C product.
- Rate path. Fixed-rate financing has loosened off the 2023 peaks. DSCR product is repricing to a livable range for individual investors.
- Competition. Institutional small-ticket buyers have pulled back meaningfully. Individual investors with local knowledge and local relationships are the marginal bidder across most of our pipeline.
What our network is transacting at
Three anonymized deals from the last 60 days. The prices are rounded; the cap and basis points are accurate.
- Nampa 4-plex, stabilized, built 1992, light cosmetic deferred maintenance. Clear at 6.7% cap, $72K per door, DSCR financed with a 20 percent down.
- Meridian duplex, stabilized, 2019 build, fully occupied at market. Clear at 5.6% cap, $210K per door, conventional 25 percent down.
- Caldwell triplex, value-add, vacant at close, $420K total acquisition. Underwrote to 7.1% cap post-rehab at $1,600 blended rent per unit.
2026 base case
Our base case is another 25 to 50 basis points of cap expansion through Q3 2026, driven by insurance and OpEx more than rate path. Rent growth on SFH rentals stays modest. Boise 3BR average holds $2,218 per month plus or minus seasonal. Vacancy stays tight at roughly 3 percent across the valley.
“For individual investors with patience and local knowledge, 2026 is the best working market we have had in three years.”
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